O n Wednesday, 6 December, we were privileged to participate in a moving ceremony in Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), convened to inaugurate Joseph Kabila as the first democratically elected President of the DRC for more than four decades.
For us, the Africans who witnessed this Presidential Inauguration, having come from North, West, Central, East and Southern Africa, the ceremony represented a proud moment of African achievement and a harbinger of a great future for our continent.
Undoubtedly, all of us understood very clearly that despite the unquestionable fact that President Kabila's inauguration represented a watershed in the evolution of the DRC and Africa, both the DRC and our continent are still faced with major challenges along the road towards the reconstruction of the DRC as a stable and prosperous democracy.
The vitally strategic significance of the inauguration was that it marked a decisive step forward in the consolidation of the necessary foundation on which will be built the stable and prosperous democracy towards which the Congolese people have aspired for many decades, and which Africa needs as a critically essential driving force in the historic effort to unite Africa and achieve its renaissance.
The Presidential Inauguration made the firm statement that the Congolese people have put in place a realistic roadmap for the successful reconstruction and development of the DRC, which derives its legitimacy from the fact that it is mandated by the Congolese people.
It made the statement that all that needs to be done by the Congolese people, supported by the peoples of Africa and the friends of Africa from elsewhere in the world, is to respect and follow the roadmap they have themselves elaborated, determined to overcome the obstacles they will inevitably come across during their advance towards the realisation of the goal of reconstructing the DRC as the shining African star that it will surely be.
On the same day, 6 December, that the Congolese people presented themselves and our continent with a gift of hope, an important document was issued in an important country across the Atlantic Ocean, the United States of America. This was the Report of the US Iraq Study Group, which had been chaired jointly by the former US Republican Party Secretary of State, James A Baker III, and the former US Democratic Party Congressman, Lee H Hamilton.
It so happened that we, for our part, arrived in Kinshasa, DRC on the morning of 6 December, and then left Kinshasa in the afternoon of the same day, travelling to Washington DC, USA. As we landed at Ndjili International Airport in Kinshasa we knew that ahead of us was an historic occasion that would be characterised by joy and hope. As we landed at Andrews Air Force Base in the USA, not knowing what the Iraq Study Group would have said, we nevertheless knew that its Report would necessarily remind us of the pain and despair that currently defines the lives of the sister people of Iraq.
We had not travelled to the United States to discuss Iraq. We had accepted the important invitation of President George W Bush to meet him and other members of his Administration with the agreed intention principally further to strengthen the good relations that exist between our two governments and peoples, and to discuss what more should be done to promote the African agenda focused on peace and stability, including the urgent resolution of the conflict in Darfur, Sudan, strengthening democracy, and the implementation of the NEPAD programme, to accelerate the development of our continent.
Necessarily, we also reflected on other global issues. These included the issues of the resolution of the Palestine-Israel conflict, the similar resolution of the tension relating to Iran and nuclear technology, the completion of the negotiations relating to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Doha Development Round, international terrorism, and the restructuring of the United Nations (UN), especially the Security Council.
From media reports, we were aware that President Bush and the rest of the US Government were involved in an intense internal consultation process relating to the challenging Iraq question. According to these reports, apart from studying the Report of the Iraq Study Group, the US Government would also reflect on proposals that would be made by the US State Department, the Pentagon, and the US National Security Council. Common sense therefore dictated that 8 December, the day we met President Bush, was not the appropriate moment to discuss Iraq.
And yet we knew that our own people, our Government and our continent are deeply concerned about what is happening in Iraq today and what will happen to Iraq tomorrow. Together we are deeply concerned about what is happening in the Middle East and West Asia today, and what will happen to this region tomorrow.
Inevitably, we will have to engage the US Government, the peoples and Governments of the Middle East and West Asia, and the rest of the world about what is happening in this region today, and what will happen tomorrow. The fact that in a mere fortnight our country will take its seat as a non-permanent Member of the UN Security Council emphasises precisely this imperative, that the future of the region we have mentioned is a matter of vital and urgent importance both to our country and our continent.
In this context, we too must take very seriously the observations made by the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group, which relate not only to Iraq, but also to the rest of the Middle East and West Asia. The stark reality is that our country and continent, like the rest of the world, however geographically distant from the Middle East and West Asia, cannot isolate themselves from any meltdown that might affect this region of our common world.
As a consequence of this, it stands to reason that regardless of what might have happened in the past, and is happening now, affecting the Middle East and West Asia, we, together with the rest of humanity, must position ourselves as part of a sustained, concerted and determined global effort to defuse the extremely dangerous situation currently prevailing in the region.
Together, we must go further and help to create the conditions for the resolution of the fundamental problems that have led to the explosive situation in the Middle East and West Asia identified in the Report of the Iraq Study Group. Among other things, this Report says:
"The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating. There is no path that can guarantee success, but the prospects can be improved...
"The challenges in Iraq are complex. Violence is increasing in scope and lethality. It is fed by a Sunni Arab insurgency, Shiite militias and death squads, al Qaeda, and widespread criminality. Sectarian conflict is the principal challenge to stability. The Iraqi people have a democratically elected government, yet it is not adequately advancing national reconciliation, providing basic security, or delivering essential services. Pessimism is pervasive...
"If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe. A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and a humanitarian catastrophe. Neighbouring countries could intervene. Sunni-Shia clashes could spread. Al Qaeda could win a propaganda victory and expand its base of operations...
"There is no guarantee for success in Iraq. The situation in Baghdad and several provinces is dire. The level of violence is high and growing. There is great suffering, and the daily lives of many Iraqis show little or no improvement. Pessimism is pervasive.
"Iraq is vital to regional and even global stability...Because of the gravity of Iraq's condition and the country's vital importance, the United States is facing one of its most difficult and significant international challenges in decades. Because events in Iraq have been set in motion by American decisions and actions, the United States has both a national and a moral interest in doing what it can to give Iraqis an opportunity to avert anarchy...
"Sectarian violence causes the largest number of Iraqi civilian casualties. Iraq is in the grip of a deadly cycle: Sunni insurgent attacks spark large-scale Shia reprisals, and vice versa. Groups of Iraqis are often found bound and executed, their bodies dumped in rivers or fields.
"The perception of unchecked violence emboldens militias, shakes confidence in the government, and leads Iraqis to flee to places where their sect is the majority and where they feel they are in less danger. In some parts of Iraq - notably in Baghdad - sectarian cleansing is taking place. The United Nations estimates that 1.6 million are displaced within Iraq, and up to 1.8 million Iraqis have fled the country...
"The prevalence of militias sends a powerful message: political leaders can preserve and expand their power only if backed by armed force. Criminality also makes daily life unbearable for many Iraqis. Robberies, kidnappings, and murder are commonplace in much of the country. Organised criminal rackets thrive, particularly in unstable areas like Anbar province. Some criminal gangs cooperate with, finance, or purport to be part of the Sunni insurgency or a Shiite militia in order to gain legitimacy...
"Despite a massive effort, stability in Iraq remains elusive and the situation is deteriorating. The Iraqi government cannot now govern, sustain, and defend itself without the support of the United States. Iraqis have not been convinced that they must take responsibility for their own future. Iraq's neighbours and much of the international community have not been persuaded to play an active and constructive role in supporting Iraq. The ability of the United States to shape outcomes is diminishing. Time is running out...
"If the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe for Iraq, the United States, the region, and the world. Continuing violence could lead toward greater chaos, and inflict greater suffering upon the Iraqi people. A collapse of Iraq's government and economy would further cripple a country already unable to meet its people's needs. Iraq's security forces could split along sectarian lines.
"A humanitarian catastrophe could follow as more refugees are forced to relocate across the country and the region. Ethnic cleansing could escalate. The Iraqi people could be subjected to another strongman who flexes the political and military muscle required to impose order amid anarchy. Freedoms could be lost.
"Other countries in the region fear significant violence crossing their borders. Chaos in Iraq could lead those countries to intervene to protect their own interests, thereby perhaps sparking a broader regional war. Turkey could send troops into northern Iraq to prevent Kurdistan from declaring independence. Iran could send in troops to restore stability in southern Iraq and perhaps gain control of oil fields...
"Ambassadors from neighbouring countries told us that they fear the distinct possibility of Sunni-Shia clashes across the Islamic world. Many expressed a fear of Shia insurrections - perhaps fomented by Iran - in Sunni-ruled states. Such a broader sectarian conflict could open a Pandora's box of problems - including the radicalisation of populations, mass movements of populations, and regime changes - that might take decades to play out. If the instability in Iraq spreads to the other Gulf States, a drop in oil production and exports could lead to a sharp increase in the price of oil and thus could harm the global economy.
"Terrorism could grow. As one Iraqi official told us, 'Al Qaeda is now a franchise in Iraq, like McDonald's.' Left unchecked, al Qaeda in Iraq could continue to incite violence between Sunnis and Shia. A chaotic Iraq could provide a still stronger base of operations for terrorists who seek to act regionally or even globally...
"These and other predictions of dire consequences in Iraq and the region are by no means a certainty. Iraq has taken several positive steps since Saddam Hussein was overthrown: Iraqis restored full sovereignty, conducted open national elections, drafted a permanent constitution, ratified that constitution, and elected a new government pursuant to that constitution.
"Iraqis may become so sobered by the prospect of an unfolding civil war and intervention by their regional neighbours that they take the steps necessary to avert catastrophe. But at the moment, such a scenario seems implausible because the Iraqi people and their leaders have been slow to demonstrate the capacity or will to act.
"Iraq cannot be addressed effectively in isolation from other major regional issues, interests, and unresolved conflicts. To put it simply, all key issues in the Middle East - the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iraq, Iran, the need for political and economic reforms, and extremism and terrorism - are inextricably linked...
To respond to this eminently difficult situation, the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group recommended that, among other things, the US and Iraq Governments should work to establish an Iraq Support Group. It said that this Group "should consist of Iraq and all the states bordering Iraq, including Iran and Syria; the key regional states, including Egypt and the Gulf States; the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council; the European Union; and, of course, Iraq itself. Other countries for instance, Germany, Japan and South Korea - that might be willing to contribute to resolving political, diplomatic, and security problems affecting Iraq, could also become members."
This proposal contains the critically important observation that the grave situation in the Middle East and West Asia demands the concerted attention and action of both the countries in the region and the rest of the world. But the question can no longer be avoided - is it not time that the United Nations, genuinely representing all nations, assumes its rightful position and leads a global process to address all the inter-connected challenges facing the peoples of the Middle East and West Asia!
None of us is entitled to succumb to a destructive paralysis by resigning ourselves to the expectation that the sister peoples of the Middle East and West Asia are ineluctably condemned to be consumed by an unstoppable conflagration, foretold by current events as an impending and modern frightening apocalypse, as a result of which mere anarchy would be loosed upon the world. The ominous and deeply disturbing situation described by the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group underlines the point that global challenges that threaten the whole world demand multilateral solutions.
